Are the Astros in trouble this season? That’s the question on many fans’ minds as the defending champions struggle out of the gate. After injuries to two-fifths of their starting rotation, the Astros have lost three consecutive series and are facing serious doubts about their prospects for 2023. But there is some hope for Astros fans, as sabermetric projections suggest the team may have been a bit unlucky so far this season. In this blog post, we dive into the data to provide an overview of the Astros’ likely performance for the rest of the year, helping you decide whether the arrow is pointing up or down on the Astros’ season.
As Chandler Rome notes, the Astros’ off-season should have addressed the team’s depth, both for position players and starting pitching. But the concern went unheeded, and now the team is struggling to stay afloat early in the season. However, sabermetric projections can give us a more neutral outlook on the question of the Astros’ prospects. By using the Pythagorean formula, we can see that the Astros have been somewhat unlucky in the distribution of runs. According to the formula, the Astros’ current record should be 20-16, implying that the Astros should be 5.5 games behind the division leader rather than 3.5. This might be a positive sign going forward.
Fangraphs provides a more detailed set of projections, with updated team depth charts that reflect individual player projections. These projections offer a more objective view of the Astros’ rest-of-season performance. Their current playoff odds have fallen below 50%, but they still have better odds of winning the AL West than any other team. With a projected winning percentage of 54.9%, the Astros’ fate is in their hands – as long as they can get their slumping batters and below-average innings eaters to step up.
So, what do you think? Will the Astros make the playoffs and win the division, or will they only make it through the wild card? Leave your opinion in the poll below!